Hurricanes Football

Miami at Notre Dame Preview: Three Things I’m Watching in South Bend

Saturday, Nov. 7 · 7:30 p.m. ET · Notre Dame Stadium · NBC

Saturday, Nov. 7 · 7:30 p.m. ET · Notre Dame Stadium · NBC

No. 1 Miami (8-0) at No. 11 Notre Dame (7-1)

Miami is going into South Bend without Malachi Toney. The Canes are averaging 47.6 points per game, and now they have to face a Notre Dame defense that allows just 13.4 points per game without the guy Darian Mensah has leaned on all year. I want to see who Mensah goes to when Miami needs a play, whether the Canes can follow the blueprint BYU laid out on the ground, and how the secondary responds after what we saw against North Carolina.

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1. Who does Mensah go to without Toney?

Toney has 73 catches for 1,027 yards and 13 touchdowns. I think Miami will miss him most on third down and in the red zone. He caught seven passes and scored twice against North Carolina. When Mensah needed a play, he knew where to go. This week, someone else has to make those catches.

Cooper Barkate is the first guy I’d look to because of the chemistry he and Mensah built at Duke. If Leonard Moore spends a lot of time on Barkate, I want to see Daylyn Upshaw get opportunities and Elija Lofton involved with the ball in space. Notre Dame is missing starting corner DJ McKinney and safety Brauntae Johnson, so Miami has matchups to attack even if Moore makes life difficult for Barkate.

2. BYU showed Miami the blueprint

Notre Dame is an elite tackling team that gives up just 85.4 rushing yards per game. BYU ran for 121 yards and two touchdowns on 30 carries in its 28-24 win. Preston Rex got 66 yards on 10 carries, and Bear Bachmeier scored both rushing touchdowns. Four yards per carry might sound ordinary, but against this defense, those yards kept BYU in situations where it could still run or pass.

Look at BYU’s opening drive. Bachmeier ran for five yards on second and 10, BYU converted third and 5 through the air, and Bachmeier finished the drive with a five-yard touchdown run. That’s the blueprint I want Miami to follow. Give Mark Fletcher Jr. and Javian Mallory carries early, test the front without starting linebacker Drayk Bowen, and make Notre Dame keep respecting the run on third down. The offensive line has to give those backs room to get downhill. Against a defense that tackles this well, I wouldn’t count on either back having to break two tackles just to get to five yards.

3. Miami’s defensive backs have to finish plays

Miami is allowing 251.9 passing yards per game and just gave up 341 yards and four passing touchdowns to North Carolina. What bothered me most was the yardage after the catch. Too many plays saw a Miami defender with a chance to make the tackle, letting the receiver turn a short completion into a bigger gain.

Notre Dame has injuries in its secondary, and Miami was already without O.J. Frederique Jr. and Ja’Boree Antoine against UNC. Now the Canes have to deal with CJ Carr, who has thrown 18 touchdowns and just one interception. Miami allows only 60.8 rushing yards per game, the best mark in the country. If that front takes away the run, the DBs have to make it count. A five-yard completion has to stay a five-yard completion.

How I see it

I trust Mensah to find answers without Toney if Fletcher and Mallory keep him out of third-and-long. I’m more worried about Miami’s defense wasting good work on first and second down. If the Canes stuff a run and force Carr to throw short of the sticks, somebody has to make that tackle. After last week, that’s the play I’ll be watching for in South Bend.