No. 1 Miami (7–0, 5–0 ACC) at North Carolina (4–3, 2–2 ACC)
Saturday, October 31 | 7:30 p.m. ET | ABC | Kenan Stadium
Miami heads to Chapel Hill with a chance to reach 8-0, but this is a game the Canes won't overlook. UNC has been competitive, and Miami has lost five straight in this series. Miami last won in Chapel Hill in 2017.
Miami has advantages it should exploit, especially in the running game. Here is what I want to see Saturday night.
1. Handle UNC before thinking about Notre Dame
UNC lost to Syracuse in overtime last week, but that doesn't tell the whole story. The Tar Heels beat Pitt and Duke and were within a touchdown of Notre Dame at halftime before losing 37–26.
Miami should win this game. But a night game on the road against a team looking to knock off No. 1 deserves its full attention. Notre Dame is next week’s problem, and Mario Cristobal has been emphatic about it. Start strong, don't give UNC extra chances, and make them earn everything. I don't want Miami to let this become a fourth-quarter game because it failed to take control earlier.
2. Make UNC stop the run
Miami averages 211 rushing yards per game, while UNC allows 154. Carolina also ranks last nationally in defensive stuff rate, stopping just 10.9 percent of runs at or behind the line of scrimmage. Against a Miami offense that rarely loses yards on the ground, this is an advantage I want to see used.
UNC’s strongest run defenders are inside, so test the edges. Miami averages 6.0 yards per carry on perimeter runs, with Mallory averaging 7.9. Get him into space, let Fletcher punish defenders through contact, and use Toney’s blocking outside.
UNC’s tackling gives Miami chances to gain yards even when the blocking doesn't create a clean lane. Keep handing it off, stay ahead of the chains, and make this defense prove it can get off the field. Mensah should not have to carry the offense in this matchup.
3. Take away the trusted targets and force mistakes
Shipp and Thurman are the two players Miami needs to locate. Shipp leads UNC with 41 catches for 543 yards, while Thurman has 33 catches for 391 yards and four touchdowns.
Thurman especially concerns me because he catches the ball when UNC needs it. On third down or in the red zone, he looks like Edwards’s first option. We already watched Benji Blackburn hurt Miami at Stanford. I do not want another tight end finding easy space and extending drives.
UNC’s offense has also turned the ball over. Make Edwards move beyond those first options and let the defensive front affect him. If he gives Miami a chance to take the ball away, finish the play. Limit Shipp’s yards after the catch, stay connected to Thurman, and force someone else to produce.
4. Be ready for Belichick’s adjustments
Belichick’s praise of Toney shows he knows exactly what Miami has. I expect him to throw in a few wrinkles, change the picture for Mensah after the snap, and make that connection harder to find.
He has faced Mensah before, too. Duke won last year, but Mensah finished 20/33 for 175 yards and one touchdown against UNC. That was one of his quieter performances, and Belichick can draw on that game.
Mensah needs to trust what he sees and not force the ball to Toney. If the extra attention creates opportunities elsewhere, the other receivers and tight ends have to deliver. Keep taking the available yards and make UNC defend the whole offense.
Overall Outlook
I expect Miami to win, but UNC has been the opponent the Canes just cannot seem to get past. The 2004 loss still stands out, and five straight losses in this series make this a streak Miami needs to end. Establish the run, capitalize on mistakes, and stay patient against Belichick’s defense. Leave Chapel Hill with a win, then turn the attention to Notre Dame.
No. 1 Miami (7–0, 5–0 ACC) at North Carolina (4–3, 2–2 ACC)
Saturday, October 31 | 7:30 p.m. ET | ABC | Kenan Stadium
Miami heads to Chapel Hill with a chance to reach 8-0, but this is a game the Canes won't overlook. UNC has been competitive, and Miami has lost five straight in this series. Miami last won in Chapel Hill in 2017.
Miami has advantages it should exploit, especially in the running game. Here is what I want to see Saturday night.
1. Handle UNC before thinking about Notre Dame
UNC lost to Syracuse in overtime last week, but that doesn't tell the whole story. The Tar Heels beat Pitt and Duke and were within a touchdown of Notre Dame at halftime before losing 37–26.
Miami should win this game. But a night game on the road against a team looking to knock off No. 1 deserves its full attention. Notre Dame is next week’s problem, and Mario Cristobal has been emphatic about it. Start strong, don't give UNC extra chances, and make them earn everything. I don't want Miami to let this become a fourth-quarter game because it failed to take control earlier.
2. Make UNC stop the run
Miami averages 211 rushing yards per game, while UNC allows 154. Carolina also ranks last nationally in defensive stuff rate, stopping just 10.9 percent of runs at or behind the line of scrimmage. Against a Miami offense that rarely loses yards on the ground, this is an advantage I want to see used.
UNC’s strongest run defenders are inside, so test the edges. Miami averages 6.0 yards per carry on perimeter runs, with Mallory averaging 7.9. Get him into space, let Fletcher punish defenders through contact, and use Toney’s blocking outside.
UNC’s tackling gives Miami chances to gain yards even when the blocking doesn't create a clean lane. Keep handing it off, stay ahead of the chains, and make this defense prove it can get off the field. Mensah should not have to carry the offense in this matchup.
3. Take away the trusted targets and force mistakes
Shipp and Thurman are the two players Miami needs to locate. Shipp leads UNC with 41 catches for 543 yards, while Thurman has 33 catches for 391 yards and four touchdowns.
Thurman especially concerns me because he catches the ball when UNC needs it. On third down or in the red zone, he looks like Edwards’s first option. We already watched Benji Blackburn hurt Miami at Stanford. I do not want another tight end finding easy space and extending drives.
UNC’s offense has also turned the ball over. Make Edwards move beyond those first options and let the defensive front affect him. If he gives Miami a chance to take the ball away, finish the play. Limit Shipp’s yards after the catch, stay connected to Thurman, and force someone else to produce.
4. Be ready for Belichick’s adjustments
Belichick’s praise of Toney shows he knows exactly what Miami has. I expect him to throw in a few wrinkles, change the picture for Mensah after the snap, and make that connection harder to find.
He has faced Mensah before, too. Duke won last year, but Mensah finished 20/33 for 175 yards and one touchdown against UNC. That was one of his quieter performances, and Belichick can draw on that game.
Mensah needs to trust what he sees and not force the ball to Toney. If the extra attention creates opportunities elsewhere, the other receivers and tight ends have to deliver. Keep taking the available yards and make UNC defend the whole offense.
Overall Outlook
I expect Miami to win, but UNC has been the opponent the Canes just cannot seem to get past. The 2004 loss still stands out, and five straight losses in this series make this a streak Miami needs to end. Establish the run, capitalize on mistakes, and stay patient against Belichick’s defense. Leave Chapel Hill with a win, then turn the attention to Notre Dame.
